As some of our readers might have notice we use a stat called PNHLe. But, what is it?
I recently spoke with PNHLe’s creator, Mason Black. I asked him a few question to clarify what it is. I’d highly recommend downloading his app, and look at some of his great work.
WM: If you could explain PNHLe in depth, how would you explain it?
MB: Basically, it’s a stat intended to predict future point potential at the NHL level. It uses historical values set by current NHL players in different leagues (at different ages) to build a model to see the best rates at which players are scoring and uses those to determine future potential. A single year can be an anomaly but over time a single prospect starts to create a trend that makes the predictions more accurate.
WM: Do you know who has the highest PNHLe of all-time in terms of prospects?
MB: I’m pretty sure it was (John) Tavares during the year he was deemed the exceptional player status (06-07). Not sure how high but it was around 170.
WM: I believe PNHLe can be used as a fantasy tool, correct?
MB: That was the original intention… As a fantasy tool.
WM: How far does PNHLe go? Like in terms of tracking years?
MB: I only tracked it as far as 2005 I think. Too many changes before the lockout that year. The game changed and the model was way less accurate.
WM: Are there limits of PNHLe? And if so what are those limits?
MB: No limits. However, the younger a player is the less accurate it is.
WM: Last question for you, Has PNHLe surpassed your expectations? From what I understand it was just a fun project you were working on.
MB: I’d say so. It’s starting to pick up some traction which is cool. I even had a player agent ask if he could use it in negotiations for a prospect.
The biggest thing is that it’s not a stat to gauge if a player will make the NHL. Or to compare how good one prospect is compared to another. It’s a stat that says, based on their current production this is what they are expected to produce in their prime at the NHL… If they make it.
WM: I appreciate you taking some time to talk to me about PNHLe! Thanks!
MB: My pleasure.
Just to reiterate, PNHLe is a stat intended to predict the offensive production of a player in their prime. It can also be used as a fantasy tool and is a great stat to use in general for prospects.
special thanks to – Mason Black (Rank King)